Longitudinal Research Into Methods of Assessing Managerial Potential

by Gillian P. Stamp

U.S. Army Research Institute for the Behavioral and Social Sciences

Technical Report 819
October 1988

This report describes research on the prediction of executive potential. An assessment technique, the career Path Appreciation (cPA), was developed by Gillian Stamp, based on the logic of Jaques’ Stratified Systems theory. lower and middle level managers were assessed and followed up over periods ranging from 4 to 13 years. Predictive validities ranged from 0.7 to 0.9, strongly suggesting that (a) development beyond the lower and middle levels of organization is heavily dependent on conceptual ability, and (b) individual development beyond lower and middle levels should focus strongly on enhancing conceptual skills, as opposed to knowledge-based instruction. these results strongly support the logic of Stratified Systems theory.